Risk warning: The value of investments and derived income can fall. Investors may get back less than they invested.

October 2021 Commodity Derivatives Report

In this month’s Commodity Report, Ashley Boolell, Partner at Shard Capital and Head of Commodity Derivatives covers the usual 10 commodities, which includes: oil, precious metals, forex and base metals and this time an additional commodity, natural gas.

You can download the full report on the Shard Capital website here: https://www.shardcapital.com/capital-markets/commodities/#report

Executive Summary:

Paul Tudor Jones, the American billionaire hedge fund manager, conservationist and philanthropist once said: “There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market.”

The “last third” of a trend that Jones refers to is that Mad Max moment where the decision to get in or get out of a position becomes increasingly perilous since two fears combine to mess with the trader’s head: the fear of losing money and the fear of leaving money on the table. It is in that final third that these fears become very difficult to control.

Well, let us take two examples: natural gas and palladium. The first one is facing serious supply issues while the latter is rapidly losing its status as the best-performing precious metal. To put this into perspective, going simultaneously long on the Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures Contract and short on palladium on July 1, 2021 would have resulted in a 200% gain on September 30, 2021 assuming that the positions were closed. Not a bad return over 66 trading days.

Now the key question is: are we in the last thirds of the natural gas bull run and the palladium bear run?

Please note: This report is intended for Professional Investors only. By inputting your details, you are confirming that you are a Professional Investor.

Q2 2021: The UK Issued 66 Investor Visas (previously Tier 1) to Main Applicants

Home Office Immigration Statistics – Data Release Q2 2021: The UK Issued 66 Investor Visas (previously Tier 1) to Main Applicants
By Farzin Yazdi, Head of Investor Visa at Shard Capital “An impressive opening! During Q2 ’21 the UK began to remove COVID restrictions and today’s data release certainly reflects this with 66 Investor Visas issued to main applicants. Applicants from China & Hong Kong as usual dominated this visa route accounting for a third of all Investor Visas issued followed by Russia, and the United States.  For over a year, we have highlighted the trend of increasing investment migration from developed nations such as the United States and Shard Capital’s specialist US Persons offering, and this trend is continuing to gather pace. Also of note, was the first European applicant from Hungary. Refusals in the Investor Visa category are typically low because applicants must go through several stringent checks prior to applying, and this quarter saw three keeping it under 5%. Do it yourself applications always end in disaster from what I have seen and heard. For us we do not open an Investor Visa account unless you have appointed an immigration lawyer or advisor to assist you through your journey. Looking ahead, Shard Capital’s dedicated Investor Visa team has seen a doubling in the number of enquiries over the past two months from Investor Visa applications. Given the lead times these enquiries will filter through to the Home Office statistics in the following two quarters. Personally, I see this due to several factors such as the UK reopening and continuing its global dominance, clients and their professional advisors realising that Investor Visa Investment Management is a specialist financial trade, and a number of financial institutions not offering Investor Visa accounts anymore. Afghanistan Unfortunately, political unrest drives economic migration.  Historically, since 2011 the Investor Visa category has issued 26 Investor Visas to main applicants and a total of 121 visas including their dependents. We have seen several Afghani nationals enquire into this category for themselves and family members. While I do not see significant numbers, I expect a handful of Investor Visas to be issued in the following quarters. UK Value for Money? From an investment perspective, the UK’s benchmark indices performed well during Q2 ’21 increasing around 6%, however relative to global benchmarks it did underperform. We did however witness a significant increase in inbound M&A investment from overseas during first half of 2021, especially private equity deals. This indicates to us that the UK equity market offers good value to investors after a period of underperformance. 25 Years and a thank you! On a personal note, next month marks 25 years since I started to work in the square mile as a stockbroker.  Yes, I am getting old!  What a journey it has been as a migrant, moving to London from the US. I wanted to thank all my clients, colleagues current and ex, intermediaries, friends, and family. The recent peer review has been truly humbling, I feel blessed that what I do is not just a job but a way to help people get a better quality of life and hopefully will be able to do so for another 25ys!”
Source: Shard Capital
Source: Shard Capital
Source: Shard Capital